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 Fed releases gloomier economic forecast

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Bài gửiTiêu đề: Fed releases gloomier economic forecast   Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:57 am

The Federal Reserve sketched a bleaker outlook Wednesday for the economy, which it thinks will grow much more slowly and face higher unemployment than it had estimated in June.

The Fed's gloomier forecast shows that the recovery from the recession has continued to fall short of expectations. Some economists said it makes the Fed more likely to act further to try to boost the economy, though probably not until early next year.

One option would be a program similar to the Fed's $600 billion in wholesale jerseys Treasury bond purchases, which it completed in June. Some economists think the Fed could buy mortgage-backed securities instead, which could more directly support the depressed housing market by lowering loan rates.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Chairman Ben Bernanke said that if conditions worsen, the Fed would consider buying more mortgage-backed securities. He declined to specify what would trigger such a move.

"Bernanke did not go out of his way to dampen growing expectations" that another round of purchases is coming, said Dana Saporta, an economist at Credit Suisse. "If anything, he stoked those expectations."

Still, a more aggressive effort to boost the economy would cheap mlb jerseys likely face resistance within the Fed. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics said the economy would have to deteriorate before the Fed would launch another round of purchases.

Meanwhile Wednesday, the markets rebounded amid a two-day slump, as international leaders scrambled to save a week-old plan to prevent a financial crisis in Europe. Strong corporate earnings and a bump up in hiring by private companies also helped send markets higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 178 points, or 1.5 percent, to 11,836. The S&P 500 rose 20, or 1.6 percent, to 1,238. The Nasdaq composite added 33, or 1.3 percent, to 2,640.

The Fed now predicts the economy will grow no more than nfl jerseys cheap 1.7 percent for 2011. For 2012, it foresees growth of about 2.7 percent. Both forecasts are roughly a full percentage point lower than its June forecast.

The Fed sees unemployment averaging 8.6 percent by the end of next year. In June, it had predicted unemployment would drop next year to as low as 7.8 percent. The rate is now 9.1 percent.

The Fed's gloomier outlook is similar to many private jerseys wholesale economists' forecasts. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, for example, expects only 1.8 percent economic growth this year and 2.1 percent in 2012.

Those growth rates are far too low to drive down unemployment.

At his news conference, his third this year, Bernanke acknowledged that the pace of growth will likely remain "frustratingly slow."

"We remain prepared to take action as yotoforum appropriate to make sure the recovery continues," he said.

Even so, the Fed said the economy had improved since nearly stalling in the spring. As a result, it's putting off any new actions so it can gauge the impact of steps it's already taken.

Fed policymakers made the announcement after a two-day meeting.

In a statement, the officials said consumers have stepped up spending. Still, they said the economy continues to face significant risks, including the debt crisis and risk of recession in Europe.

At his news conference, Bernanke cited Europe's cheap nfl jerseys debt crisis as a particular concern. He said the crisis could threaten confidence and hold back growth.

The vote on the Fed's policy statement was 9-1. Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, dissented. The statement said Evans wanted to take stronger action to try to boost the economy.

The vote was a shift from the previous two Fed meetings, at which three members had dissented for the opposite reason: They opposed the Fed's continued efforts to keep rates at super-lows, for fear it could ignite inflation. Those three members, known as inflation "hawks," dropped their opposition this time.
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"The view of the hawks is that once the decision has been made by the majority, it just causes confusion if they continue to vote to roll back action that has already been taken," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
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